A good training program should make you stronger. But if you don't have an objective way to gauge improvement, you won't know how well your program is working -- or whether it's working at all.
The best way to know is to use a watts meter and periodically perform tests at different distances. Watts are an objective way to measure increases in power output regardless of the
wind and road surface.
But most riders don't have a watts meter due to expense and complexity.
No problem! If you have a heart monitor or can borrow one, you can come pretty close to objectivity. The trick is getting enough data points over several months. Here's how:
Set aside one day every two weeks for testing. Follow an identical protocol each time: a rest day before the test, same diet, same warmup.
Use the same 3-mile stretch of road. Ideally, it'll be sheltered from the wind and won't have traffic control devices. Or, use a loop 4-5 miles around.
On test day, warm up well. Then ride the course out-and-back like a time trial or go around the loop. The idea is to negate the wind's effect by riding both into it and with it.
Keep your heart rate just below the number where heavy breathing turns into panting. This isn't a flat-out time trial, but it's close.
Record the elapsed time in your training diary, along with average heart rate and wind conditions.
Environmental factors will vary from one test to another, but they'll average out during several months. Chart your times on graph paper. If your training is effective, you'll see a definite curve of progress (lower times). If not, you'll know that your program needs changes.